Projection

[forsyth]

Give two people the exact same situation, and much of the time they'll come to completely different conclusions. It works with religion, people project what they think onto the universe, it works with politics, it works with relationships. And it works when people are predicting what the world's gonna look like. I was reading through WorldChanging and one of the blogs linked from it, and people were discussing what the world's gonna look like in the future. In particular, after oil starts to run out. Some of the people were looking forward to a world that sounded a lot like the 1950s, without refrigeration and stuff, others were saying how cities were going to die and the world was going to go back to something that sounds a lot like the middle ages. Yeah, there's going to be a lot of changes and shakeups and a lot of really Bad Stuff going on thanks to climate change and energy reserves running low and stuff, especially with many governments (especially ours) not caring or doing anything to prepare or even just do things in less wasteful ways. But cities will still be there, and probably actually get denser. The real losers, I think, are gonna be the suburbs. They're completely designed around cars and the internal combustion engine. Not to mention how poorly man of the houses are built. But some of that probably comes from me projecting my own experiences with crappy subdivisions and such. Whatever the case, the future's definitely going to be weird and different than the world now.

And back to projecting, it's like how because my besetting sin is laziness, I blame a lot of the problems with people on laziness, rather than stupidity or evil or things like that. Of course, I think I'm right about that, too.

Comments

[amazingadrian.livejournal.com]

I dunno ferret. We've come a long way. Personally, I think if the species manages to outlive oil, we'll come up with another alternative. We already have some eco-fuels that can be grown, even if they might not be as effective as gasoline yet by themselves. We innovate, and I think the species can keep itself afloat on that. You can bet the social structure will be different, but I don't think there will be an actual regression. If there is, it would have to be because of something instant and major, like that asteroid actually hitting us on top of global warming.

No, I think we're too far advanced as a global community to not come up with a solution. In the past when civilisational regression occured, it was always because of invasions and takeovers or natural disasters. All sudden things that the folks of the day probably didn't see coming.

[forsythferret.livejournal.com]

Well, yeah, that's pretty much where I am. There's gonna be a lot of disruptions from oil price shocks and climate change, but I think our species and civilization will survive it. But things will certainly look a lot different than they do now, and they won't just look like the 50s or the middle ages.

[frustratedpilot]

Ever see the John Ritter/Harvey Korman movie Americathon? Not that I necessarily recommend watching it, but it had partly the same premise--only they intentionally parodized it.

As for real-life:
1) The Nazis almost succeeded in synthesizing motor fuel from coal.
2) The WW2 Japanese actually succeeded in synthesizing motor fuel from pine spirits.
3) Hybrid and flex-fuel vehicles are catching on, and turbine engines for big-rig trucks are also in the works.

The internal combustion engine will be around for a good long time to come. And unless something comes along that truly makes it obsolete, it'll wind up being dragged out of sight kicking and screaming.

I agree that housing technology is horrid these days. It's too labor-intensive (needlessly so) and prone to glitches. Modular pre-fab (like they do in Japan these days) is the way to go.

[forsythferret.livejournal.com]

No, I haven't seen it.

And yeah, there's other sources of fuel for internal combustion engines, but they're all more expensive (currently) and not as energy-dense. Both of which make alternatives more appealing. And the internal combustion engine is good for a lot of things, but it honestly isn't needed for a lot of the things we use it for. And between the twin forces of expensive oil and climate change, we'll probably start using it a lot less, which is a good thing. Have you seen the Tesla Electric Roadster? Who needs an internal combustion engine for a sports car?

I especially hate the housing thing since they keep dropping in these subdevelopments of giant crappy houses everywhere around here.